Renewable Power Fail – As Usual – June 2010

Posted on Mon 09/27/2010 by TonyfromOz

June, the first month of a hot Summer showed a marked increase in the consumption of electrical power across the U.S. With this quite large increase in power consumption, and in the current political environment, you might expect that Renewable Power would have aided the overall total increase with an increase in power production from that sector. However, while every other sector, (and most especially the coal fired sector) increased its power generation for that Month, that Renewable Power sector actually decreased its contribution.

While all the political talk is that there should a concerted move away from coal fired power, because of the Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emissions, and instead of using that coal fired power, then we should be scaling up the move to use of electrical power generated from Renewable sources, most importantly Wind Power and Solar Power.

It’s a simple thing for anyone to just say that Renewable Power does not work to replace that coal fired power, because the perception is that just by saying that, then the person saying it has a Political agenda, or another agenda. I have no agenda at all. What I expressly set out to achieve is not to just say that Renewable Power fails at every level to take the place of coal fired power. My sole aim is to prove, and prove conclusively that these two forms of Renewable Power fail to deliver on any level. There is no just leaving the statement out there. I have the statistics that prove absolutely that Renewable Power fails. It’s not something I just make up. I just translate the actual statistics for power consumption.

This is not a Political argument. It’s absolute and incontrovertible proof.

This post continues on from the earlier posts for this year. They are available at this permanent link. At this link I have the statistics for each month of this year, 2010, to date.

These statistics are provided by the Federal Government and are easily accessed at the Energy Information Administration (EIA) site at this link. These statistics are released each month, and because the Power generation sector in the U.S. is just so huge, they are for the period of time three months back. You may think this is somewhat anomalous, but be fully aware that virtually no other Country on the Planet can provide accurate statistics of this nature for even a yearly basis, let alone a Month to Month basis, and to do it at such short notice of three months.

Some of you may actually wonder why I give the perception of saying the same old thing month after month. Each month is different, and what this series of Monthly posts most effectively does is to show those actual statistics all in the one place, so that it can never be said that I am taking one month in isolation to stress a point, thus giving the perception of taking it out of context. Each of those Posts there at that earlier link to all the Months for this year to date show that Renewable Power fails, not just on the odd occasion, but all year round. At the end of the year, with all 12 posts, one for each month, then it can be readily, and quite easily, seen that if there has been a problem when Renewable Power might give the impression of not being able to deliver, then that problem is not an isolated one, but a problem that exists ALL the time.

This is not an isolated case, but the actual overall situation.

So then what did happen in June, the first of the hot Summer Months?

OVERALL

Overall, there was a large rise in electrical power consumption. When you think of that be aware that electricity is not just consumed in the residential household situation that we all live in, but across three sectors. That residential sector consumes 38% of all power. The Commerce sector consumes 37%, and the Industrial sector consumes 24%. So, even though you as a household consumer might think you are doing the responsible thing and consuming a tiny bit less, be aware that your contribution, even if it were being copied by every household would have very little effect whatsoever.

Overall power consumption for the Month increased by a mammoth 15%. In fact, this consumption for the Month of June was the highest June generation of power in recent years, and an 8% increase on last year. The overall power generation for the year to date is even higher than for last year as well.

So, even after so much rhetoric that we need to be using less power, it all seems to be falling on deaf ears. Because electrical power usage is a discretional thing, then people will always use, well, whatever is available for them to use. No amount of rhetoric from politicians will change a single thing. Electrical power is now a staple of life. We have to use it as part of everything we do. If it’s there, it will be used. People can say publicly whatever they like, but in private, when they are not subject to ‘Big Brother’, then these statistics will tell the truth, and tell it every time.

So, look at the small Pie chart for Power generation for the year to date.

This image is from The Energy Information Administration. (EIA) Click on the image and it will open in a new and larger window.

As you can see there are 6 sectors shown there. With such a huge overall increase in power generation, then you would expect that increase to be taken up by all those sectors. In fact, five of those sectors shown there did increase their power generation. The only sector that did not increase its power generation was in fact that Renewable Power sector.

So let’s look at it sector by sector. The pie chart shows the coal fired sector with a slightly smaller percentage than last month, but keep in mind that this is not a Monthly chart, but a Year To Date chart, so that’s why it ‘seems’ there may have been a decrease in that coal fired sector. In actuality, the coal fired sector increased its power generation by 15.4%, and here’s the link to that chart. Scroll down to 2010, and then compare the latest figures for June with those for May. As you can see, every sector increased its generation for that month barring the one sector, that for Renewable Power.

That increase in power generation for that coal fired sector resulted in an increase in consumption of coal by 11.5 Million tons, and as each ton of coal produces 2.86 tons of Carbon Dioxide, (CO2) then those CO2 emissions from that coal fired sector increased by 33 Million tons, just in that one month alone, and that is just the increase because the total emission of CO2 for June came in at 250 Million tons, and read that again slowly…..250 Million tons, and just in June alone.

The increase in power production from the Natural Gas sector was 26%. Natural Gas fired plants only provide power for those Peaking power persiods of time, running in the main for only around 2 hours in the early AM, and for 5 to 6 hours in the late afternoon and early evening. So, in this case those Natural Gas power plants were running for considerably longer periods of time than they normally do.

This resulted in an increase in the consumption of Natural gas in the amount of 152 Million mcf, where mcf is 1000 cubic feet of natural gas. As each mcf produces 122 pounds of CO2 then the increase in emissions from this sector amounted to an increase of 9.3 Million tons of CO2, and the overall total CO2 emissions from that Natural Gas sector amounted to just on 45 Million tons.

So, as is patently obvious, when large amounts of electrical power are required for consumption, those increased levels come from areas that actually can provide it, for when it is actually needed.

There was also an increase in the power supplied from the Nuclear sector, even though three of those large scale plants were offline for large periods of time. What that meant was that the other Nuclear plants were actually providing more, even with some of them out of operation. That increase in power from that Nuclear sector was still 2.5%. because those plants that were down could not provide the power to cover the huge overall increase, then those coal fired and Natural Gas plants took up some of the slack, again proving that when power is needed most, it will always be provided from known sources that CAN provide it.

There was even an increase in the power supplied from Hydro Electric sources. No new Hydro schemes have come on line, not that that will ever happen, but all this means is that they too provided extra when it was actually needed, and the increase from that Hydro sector was 18%.

RENEWABLE POWER

When you look at the power provided from that Renewable sector, you can plainly see that while every other sector increased its contribution, that Renewable Power sector actually decreased the amount of power it delivered to the grids, and not by a small amount, but by what is indeed quite a large amount when taken in the context of the overall power generation. That 4% decrease may not seem much, and there’s probably actually apologists out there who may even say that this is indeed not very much, but when every other sector increases their contribution by, in most cases more than 20%, then even a 4% reduction is indeed quite a large amount. Let’s then look in isolation at the two main areas of Renewable Power generation, those two most currently in favour, Wind Power and Solar Power.

This is the link to the page from the EIA that shows the delivery performance for those two areas.

WIND POWER

Wind Power decreased its contribution by almost 8% for the month. That total you see at the link amounts to only 2.07% of all the power generated in the U.S. so even though that Renewable sector on the pie chart looks reasonable at around 4.6%, the largest contributor Wind Power only comes in at this exceedingly low number, and in fact is a fall even from last month when that percentage of the total stood at 2.57%. The rolling 6 month total for the year sees wind power providing only 2.3%, a fall even from last month when that figure was at 2.35%. so overall Wind Power’s contribution is falling, even though we are told it is in fact providing more and more power, which is patently false.

The total Nameplate Capacity for all the wind towers in the U.S. comes in at 38,000MW, which on the surface seems quite a large number, around the same as for 19 large scale coal fired power plants.

However, having said that this figure is not the important one. What is more important, and in fact vitally important is how much power all those huge towers actually deliver to the grids. In this case, for the month of June that figure came in at 7.793 Billion KWH. If those towers were to run at their maximum all the time, then the total power they could deliver comes in at 28.3 Billion KWH. What this effectively means is that all those Wind Towers are running at a power delivery rate of only 27.4%. Those who tell us that these wind plants are the direction we should be moving in tell us these plants can reasonably deliver their power at an efficiency rate around 35%, and this Month’s figure is considerably lower than that, even though it is a little higher than the whole of World current percentage of around 20% power delivery efficiency. In fact, Wind Power very seldom delivers at that 35% anywhere, no matter how new the technology may be. On a year to date basis, the average delivery percentage is only running at around 25%.

What this means can be extrapolated down to a daily basis. If they are only running at around 27% for the month, then that effectively means they are only providing their maximum, power for a quarter of the day, or for around 6 hours. Coal fired plants, and nuclear plants supply their maximum power for the full 24 hours, and those Natural Gas fired plants run up to speed, and supply their full power for all the time they are running. This is for when that power is actually needed. Wind plants provide their power only when the wind blows, so no Authority that provides electrical power would dare rely on Wind Power to provide the power they do provide. They have to have that power available at the grid for when it is needed.

For the purpose of comparison, this 38,000MW is the same as for 19 large scale coal fired power plants, so let’s run a side by side comparison. All those Wind towers actually delivered 7.793 Billion KWH for the whole Month. Those equivalent 19 large scale coal fired plants would have delivered 27.36 Billion KWH, or 3.5 times as much power. Using this same comparison, those equivalent coal fired plants provided the same power as all those wind towers did for the whole Month, and they provided it by 1PM on the 8th June, or the same power in eight and a half days.

SOLAR POWER

With June as the first Month of Winter, then we look forward to a huge increase in the power produced from Solar means, because the Sun is in the sky for longer. Well, that’s what we will be told anyway.

So then, let’s look at actual statistics shall we.

True Solar Power did increase its contribution, and by a whopping amount, almost 15%. Sounds great doesn’t it. However, when it’s coming from such a tiny base, then that 15% increase is in fact almost zero.

The overall total contribution from the WHOLE of this Solar Power sector amounts to only 0.038% of all power generated in the whole of the U.S. just more than one thirtieth of one percent. In fact this percentage is the same as for last month, and the rolling total for the year to date amounts to only0.023% of the total.

There’s around 800MW of total Nameplate Capacity for all Solar Power in the US, around as much as for one medium sized coal fired plant. If all those Solar Plants produced at their maximum, which by the way means that a way has to be found to make the Sun shine for all night as well as all day, then they could deliver around 600Million KWH of power. They actually delivered 143 million KWH of power to the grids they are connected to. This gives them a power delivery efficiency of 23.8%, effectively meaning they too can only deliver their power for around 6 hours of each day. The rolling 6 month percentage only comes in at 13.1%, or around 3 hours a day.

Again, no Power Authority in its right mind would rely on Solar Power to make up part of the power they need, and anyway, it’s such a monumentally tiny amount that it’s not even looked at, let alone taken into consideration.

I compared all these Solar plants to one medium sized coal fired plant. This coal fired plant would have delivered 576 Million KWH, or just over four times as much power, That same coal fired plant would have delivered the same power as all those Solar Plants by 11AM on the 7th of June, or in just under seven and a half days.

CONCLUSIONS

As with every other Month so far this year, Renewable Power has failed, and failed on a monumentally grand scale, to deliver electrical power to all consumers.

This is not a case of looking at statistics and twisting them in a way to try and prove an argument, or to make a political point. This is actual data of actual consumption, and actual power generation. It shows conclusively that renewable Power is nowhere even remotely close to the rhetoric we are being spun. Renewable Power CANNOT deliver power on a regular basis for when it is needed.

When combined, these two now mainstream forms of Renewable Power that are being hyped out of all proportion delivered only 2.1% of all power delivered in June from every source in the U.S. and this is way down on the total for the previous Month when it came in at a paltry 2.6%.

2.1%

We are told with deafening regularity that we need to ramp up production to 20% and more. These statistics only prove one thing, and prove it in stark bold reality that they can never achieve this.

Even so, literally hundreds of Billions of dollars are being thrown at both these forms of power generation to ramp them up.

Yet, when power is required, those traditional sources of power generation are the only ones actually increasing the power that they deliver. What is actually happening is that while these Renewable plants are being ramped up, those existing traditional plants are in fact being asked to work harder to provide more power, because, patently, these two forms of Renewable Power just cannot deliver.

As I have said all along, and will continue to say to whoever might be reading these posts.

RENEWABLE POWER – STILL NOTHING MORE THAN AN ABSOLUTE FAILURE

RenewPowerFail2010

Tagged: Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Emissions, Climate Change Religion, Climate Change Scaremongering, Coal Fired Power Generation, Global Warming Alarmism, Global Warming Hype, Natural Gas Power Plants, Renewable Power, Renewable Power Targets, Solar Power Generation, Wind Power Generation