By David Wojick, Ph.D. ~
In an earlier article, I pointed out that China has a monopoly on the processed graphite used to make almost all lithium batteries.
Now, I am thinking about what might happen if China were to use that monopoly power to impose a graphite embargo on America. If we got into a big flap over Taiwan, for example.I am not suggesting this is likely, just possible. In the military this is called a vulnerability assessment, and I have done a few. The potential impact is damaging enough to be worth thinking about, perhaps even doing something about. There are plausible scenarios where the damage to America is crippling.
Not that I am here doing a vulnerability assessment, as that would be a serious research project. Let’s just look at some basic issues that can get people started.
Anyone thinking such an embargo is impossible should look at the 1973 Arab oil embargo, which hit America pretty hard. I was there. Some features of that fiasco are likely to recur in a graphite embargo scenario, especially hoarding in reaction to short supply.
The basic idea is that the supply of new lithium batteries stops coming. How and how quickly this might happen when the processed graphite supply stops are two of the biggest research questions. This gets into how the embargo might be implemented. Given that a lot of our batteries are imported, it is not a matter of simply stopping graphite shipments to America.
On the impact side, it is amusing that there is already a lot of hand-wringing about how a graphite shortage might slow down the forced transition to electric vehicles. Since I oppose that forced transition, I would consider this impact a benefit.
The spearpoint of adverse impact is mobile communication, which is already fundamental to America. There is also a great deal of mobile computation, which we mostly take for granted. Things like email and web access.
So, let’s start with smartphones, which pretty much all use lithium batteries. According to Statistica, the number of smartphones bought each year is over a whopping 120 million. Estimated American users are around 300 million, so purchases equal 40% of the user population, which looks like a very high turnover rate.
Without graphite, this huge flow of essential battery-powered devices could quickly stop. Nor would there be new replacement batteries for the existing fleet of phones, which would cease working at some rate that needs to be estimated. Hoarding of existing batteries would hasten this chaos.
Statistica unwittingly puts the issue nicely. They say this: “Since the introduction of the smartphone, the device has played an increasingly important role in people’s lives, to the point that today, we could not imagine a day without it.”
Except we are imagining a day without it, in fact, many days for many people. A vulnerability analysis should try to say what the impact of such an unimaginable situation would look like. It would not be a pretty picture. That our economy would be crippled seems clear.
No doubt there are other essential uses of lithium batteries that need to be considered. Some interesting statistics are that roughly one-third of all battery sales are for mobile devices, one-third for “automotive” uses, and the last third for “industrial” uses. I have no idea what the industrial uses are or what fraction of these batteries are lithium. The possible military impact is especially critical because mobile communication is essential.
The potential damage from a Chinese monopoly graphite embargo is quite large. Vulnerability assessment is clearly called for.
Dr David Wojick is an independent policy analyst and senior advisor to CFACT, working at the intersection of science, technology and policy. As a civil engineer with a Ph.D. in logic and analytic philosophy of science, he brings a unique perspective to complex policy issues. His specializes in science and technology intensive issues, especially in energy and environment. As a cognitive scientist he also does basic research on the structure and dynamics of complex issues and reasoning. This research informs his policy analyses. He has written hundreds of analytical articles.
Read more excellent articles at CFACT http://www.cfact.org/
Nick Anaxagoras
Tue 05/21/2024
“The good thing about science is that it’s true whether or not you believe in it.”
― Neil DeGrasse Tyson
Believe = religion
Think = opinion
Know = science
What I know follows.
What do you know that’s different?
Published (SubStack, X, MS Edge, YouTube (banned), PAPundits, et. al.)
Peer reviewed (by the world)
Undisputed (so far)
The GHE/CAGW BIG LIE depends on two erroneous assumptions:
Abstract summary
Earth is cooler w atmos/GHGs/30% albedo not warmer.
Ubiquitous GHE heat balance graphics use bad math and badder physics.
Surface cannot upwell/radiate “extra” energy as a BB.
Fact 1: Remove the Earth’s atmosphere or even just the Radiative GreenHouse Gases and the Earth becomes much like the Moon, no water vapor or clouds, no ice or snow, no oceans, no vegetation, no 30% albedo becoming a barren rock ball, hot^3 (400 K) on the lit side, cold^3 (100 K) on the dark. At our distance from the Sun space is hot (394 K) not cold (5 K).
That’s NOT what the RGHE theory says.
EVIDENCE:
RGHE theory “288 K w – 255 K w/o = a 33 C colder ice ball Earth”
Nobody agrees 288 is the GMST + it was 15 C in 1896.
255 K assumes w/o keeps 30% albedo, an assumption akin to criminal fraud.
Nikolov “Airless Celestial Bodies”
Kramm “Moon as test bed for Earth”
UCLA Diviner lunar mission data
JWST solar shield
Int’l Space Station HVAC design for lit side of 250 F. (ISS web site)
Astronaut backpack life support w/ AC and cool water tubing underwear. (Space Discovery Center)
Fact 2: GHE theory claims the GHGs require “extra” energy upwelling from a surface radiating as a black body.
EVIDENCE:
According to “TFK_bams09” atmospheric power flux balance, numerous clones and SURFRAD the GHGs must absorb an “extra” 396 calc’d/333 “back”/63 duplicate net W/m^2 LWIR energy upwelling from the surface allegedly radiating as a black body. These graphics contain egregious arithmetic and thermodynamic errors.
Fact 3: Because of the significant non-radiative, i.e. kinetic, heat transfer processes of the contiguous participating atmospheric molecules the surface cannot upwell “extra” energy as a black body.
EVIDENCE:
As demonstrated by experiment, the gold standard of classical science.
For the experimental write up see:
https://principia-scientific.org/debunking-the-greenhouse-gas-theory-with-a-boiling-water-pot/
CONCLUSION:No RGHE, no GHG warming, no CAGW or mankind/CO2 driven climate change.
Since both GHE & CAGW climate “science” are indefensible rubbish alarmists must resort to fear mongering lies, lawsuits, censorship and violence
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