Australian Wind Generation – Long Term Capacity Factor – Introduction And Permanent Link To All Posts (Updated Each Monday)

Posted on Mon 09/25/2023 by TonyfromOz

By Anton Lang ~

This Series of Posts continues the data collection for Australian Wind Generation for the vast area covered by the AEMO, (Australian Energy Market Operator) and this coverage area is for nearly all of the Australian Continent, encompassing the major Australian Power Grid. Australia has a smaller, secondary power grid, which covers just the State of Western Australia, and that separate grid makes up just 8% of Australia’s Power Generation, so this vast AEMO grid covers 92% of Australia’s overall total power generation.

Permanent Link to All Posts in this Series ***** Link to all earlier Data Posts (1153Posts)

Stockyard Hill Wind Plant, the largest wind plant in Australia

What Is Capacity Factor.

Capacity Factor is the relationship between total generated power and the Nameplate for a power generation source. (in this case, wind generation)

The current Nameplate (as at 24 September 2023) for wind in Australia is 10,277MW from 79 Industrial Wind Plants. So, at the current 30% Capacity Factor, then the actual generated power is only 3083MW.

Nameplate – 10,277MW. Average Delivered Power – 3,083MW. Now can you see why Capacity Factor is so important?

That total Nameplate will never be generated, even at any single point in time. Wind generation varies on a minute by minute basis, an hour by hour basis, a day by day basis, and similarly for longer periods of time as well. That’s why it can never be relied upon to generate stable and reliable power, with those two points, stability and reliability, both a requirement for supply of power to all consumers at all times.

That current total Nameplate is 10277MW. As each new wind plant comes on line, I will add that to the list of wind plants, and update the data accordingly.

I have been collecting and detailing this data for wind generation on a daily basis for five years now. I originally started because someone told me that the 30% figure for that Capacity Factor that I had been using for ten years was lower (and the word quoted to me was ‘way‘ lower) than it actually was. I had been using that 30% figure already for more than ten years, based upon actual data, but not really recorded. So rather that just ‘say’ that I was in fact correct, I made a decision to collect and detail that wind generation data.

So, for five years now, and on a daily basis, I have collected and detailed that data for wind generation. I made the decision to detail two Capacity Factor percentages, the first for the full data collection period, (now 5 full years, so 260 weeks, and 1821 separate daily records) and the second figure for the most recent 52 weeks, so a Yearly Capacity Factor percentage.

Now, this in an important thing, having those two figures, not that I was all that aware of it at the start, five years ago. For so often now over those ensuing five years, every time I mentioned Capacity Factor at sites where they are glowingly in favour of wind generation, (after pointing out how low that percentage actually was) I was told that as newer technology plants come on line then that Capacity Factor percentage would increase, (and here, I was told that it would increase ‘considerably’, and in short time) and when I then mentioned that was all but mathematically impossible, I was again metaphorically laughed at.

So, now with five years of data collection behind me, the results are interesting, to say the least, and these are the current percentages, as at Sunday 24 September 2023.

Long Term Capacity Factor – 52 weeks – 29.69%

Long Term Capacity Factor – 260 weeks – 30.37%

You can easily see now that in fact the most recent 52 week figure is ….. LOWER than the full five year percentage. In those five years of gathering this data, the Nameplate for wind generation has increased from Monday 1 October 2018 of 5301MW to the current total of 10277MW, an addition of 4976MW, so that’s an increase of 94%, so wind power has all but doubled in that time, and yet the shorter time percentage is lower, the opposite in fact of what I was so ‘confidently’ told by wind power supporters.

During those five years that Capacity Factor percentage for both has varied by only marginal amounts, after an initial six Months of settling down. With that longer term figure, the lowest it has been was 29.05%, and it has been as high as just a little below 30.52%, and with the 52 week figure, those gaps have been between a high of 31.05% and a low of 28.35%. It has been only on few occasions when the 52 week figure has been higher than the longer term figure by any significant margin.

These are the Capacity Factor Percentages across these last five years.

After year one – Long Term – 30.40% —– 52 week – 30.40%

After year two – Long Term – 29.57% —– 52 week – 29.09%

After year three – Long Term – 30.16% —– 52 week – 30.68%

After year four – Long Term – 30.38% —– 52 week – 30.40%

After year five – Long Term – 30.37% —– 52 week – 29.69%

So not only has that figure I used of 30% been shown to be true, but it has been remarkably stable around that percentage for such a long time now.

As well as that, as newer technology wind plants do come on line, that overall Capacity Factor is not increasing.

I am reluctant to stop collecting and recording this data, as I have this thought that as soon as I do stop, those wind supporters will say how all of a sudden, wind power is becoming so much better, something I have shown to false for so many years now, and will continue to show.

So, whenever you hear how wind power has reached such a large Nameplate, be fully aware that on average, it is only delivering less than one third of that total.

Anton Lang uses the screen name of TonyfromOz, and he writes at this site, PA Pundits International on topics related to electrical power generation, from all sources, concentrating mainly on Renewable Power, and how the two most favoured methods of renewable power generation, Wind Power and all versions of Solar Power, fail comprehensively to deliver levels of power required to replace traditional power generation. His Bio is at this link.

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