Australian Daily Electrical Power Generation Data – Sunday 16th June 2019 – Plus Weekly And Rolling Totals

Posted on Mon 06/17/2019 by

0


By Anton Lang ~

UPDATE

This week there were some additions to Wind Plants and also to Solar Plants as well. This increases the Nameplate for each of these sectors.

When it comes to wind power, there have now been a number of changes in the form of additions of new plants, increasing the overall Nameplate so far over these last 37 weeks. That has necessitated a change in the percentage rate for calculating the Rolling Average Capacity Factor (CF) for wind power, something I do on that daily basis, weekly basis and rolling basis. With the daily CF, it is still a straight out calculation, as with the weekly CF also, both using the new Nameplate for that day, and for that week. However, with the Rolling CF after a number of weeks, that then changes with the increase in Nameplate, so a new Rolling Average CF needs to be worked out at the time of each (and every) change, calculating the CF at the existing previous Nameplate for those weeks, and then the new CF for the new Nameplate total, and doing that for every change in Nameplate, and then working out the new Rolling Average CF. In that way, it gives a completely accurate CF for the whole period of time…..TonyfromOz.

This Post details the daily power consumption data for the AEMO coverage area in Australia. For the background information, refer to the Introductory Post at this link.

Each image is shown here at a smaller size to fit on the page alongside the data for that day. If you click on each image, it will open on a new page and at a larger size so you can better see the detail.

Note also the scale change for all of the images, and that even though they look similar in size of generation, that scale (the total power shown on the left hand vertical axis) has been changed to show the graph at a larger size to better fit the image for that graph.

Sunday 16th June 2019

Total Power Generation All Sources

Here, the total power generation from every power plant source is the top of the load curve, with each colour indicating a source of power generation. This is also similar to the total power consumption, which is slightly lower after minor grid losses are taken into account.

The dark grey colour is for the black coal fired power generation. The yellowish colour is for the brown coal fired power generation. The purple colour is for natural gas fired power generation. The blue colour is for Hydro (water) power generation. The green colour is for wind power generation. The red colour in the dip between the two peaks is for solar power plant generation. The other colours mixed in with the rest of them are from those smaller Other sources. Rooftop solar power is not included on this graph, as this shows just the power generation from all power plants only.

In the data below, both of those (exact) figures for total power consumption for the daily minimum and the daily Peak are taken directly from the AEMO site, adding up the totals for each of the five States in this coverage area. Also, note the slight difference between Total Consumed Power and Total Generated Power. That indicates some of the losses in the grid system

Daily Minimum Power Consumption – 17690MW (4.05AM)

Daily Peak Power Consumption – 26710MW (6.20PM)

Daily Minimum Generated Power – 18100MW (4.05AM)

Daily Maximum Generated Power – 27100MW (6.20PM)

Average Total Power Generation – 22400MW

Total Power Generation In GWH – 537.6GWH

All Fossil Fuels Total – Coal Fired and Natural Gas Fired Power Generation

Here, the upper black line is the total from all fossil fuels, and this is the same as for all three colours, the grey, dark yellow and purple colours combined in the image directly above.

The black line just under that top black line is the Sub Total just for coal fired power, and that is the same as the combined colours of the grey and ark yellow on the image above. Note here how closely that coal fired line follows the shape of the upper Load Curve, and this indicates that coal fired power can be ramped up and down to follow actual power consumption.

Daily Minimum Coal Fired – 14430MW

Daily Peak Coal Fired – 17410MW

Average Coal Fired Generation – 16160MW

Total Generated Power – 387.84GWH

Average Percentage Of Total – 72.14%

Natural Gas Fired Power Generation

This image for Natural Gas Fired Power Generation shows the gap between the total for all Fossil Fuelled Sources of power generation and Coal Fired Power Generation in the image directly above.

Note here how closely the shape follows the total power generation Load Curve in the top image, indicating how these natural gas fired plants are used to smooth out the load curve to match actual power consumption.

Note also that while coal fired power provides the bulk of the power, these natural gas fired plants are used to add more power to the system during those time periods during the day when consumption rises for the morning peak, and the main evening Peak

Daily Minimum – 1240MW

Daily Peak – 5470MW

Average Natural Gas Fired Generation – 2390MW

Total Generated Power – 57.36GWH

Average Percentage Of Total – 10.67%

All Renewable Power Generation Versus Total Power Generation

This Image shows just the gap between total power generation from every source and the total power from the three renewable sources only. It is the same image as the first image at the top here, only with the fossil fuelled total (the grey, yellow and purple colours) and those smaller Other sources removed from the graph, As in that top image, it shows Hydro Power, (blue colour) wind power, (green colour) and solar power. (red colour)  This image is used here to highlight the gap between the total power generation (that black line, which also includes RTS as well) and the total from renewable sources alone.

All Renewable Power Generation (Does not include rooftop solar generation)

This image is the same as for the one directly above for all renewable power, only with the total from all sources removed from the graph. As the scale of the left hand vertical axis has now changed, you can better see the detail of all renewable power. Again, the blue colour is for hydro, the green colour is for wind, and the red colour is for solar. The other colours you can just make out indicates smaller plants, mostly using biofuels as their fuel source, tiny plants adding up to a very small total and for a short time duration. For this data, I have added the times for the daily minimum, and the daily maximum, to show how they do not correlate with the actual times of minimum power consumption (4AM) and maximum power consumption. (around 6/6.30PM)

Daily Minimum – 2300MW

Daily Peak – 4500MW

Average Renewable Generation – 3190MW

Total Generated Power – 76.56GWH

Average Percentage Of Total – 14.24%

Generation From Other Sources

This image shows the power being generated from the smaller sources other than the major sources of power generation. These include Natural Gas/Diesel, Natural gas/Fuel Oil, Coal Seam Methane, Diesel, Kerosene, Waste Coal Mine Gas and Bagasse. All of these are fossil Fuels, excepting Bagasse which is sugar cane waste mostly used to provide main and auxilliary power at sugar mills.

Note the scale change here, as these are smaller producers of power, and the scale is changed so they can be more easily shown on the graph.

For the data here, I have just added the average generation across the day, the total generated power from all these sources, and the percentage of the total.

Average Generation – 660MW

Total Generated Power – 15.84GWH

Average Percentage Of Total – 2.95%

Hydro Power Generation

This image shows all Hydro power generation. It is the same as the blue colour in the top image for power generation from all sources.

Again, note here that the shape of this load curve follows the shape of the main load curve for all power generation, in that it has similar peaks in the morning and for the main evening Peak. The coloured lines at the bottom of this graph indicate the power generation from each of the hydro plants in this coverage area.

Daily Minimum – 1370MW

Daily Peak – 4180MW

Average Hydro Generation – 2300MW

Total Generated Power – 55.2GWH

Average Percentage Of Total – 10.27%

Wind Power Generation

This image shows the total power generated by every wind plant in this vast coverage area. It is the same as for the green coloured line in the image at the top showing generation from all sources.

The total Nameplate for all these wind plants is 6558MW, from a total of 54 wind plants.

Note that the shape of this load curve does not follow the shape of the main load curve for total power generation. Wind power generates its power only when the wind is blowing, hence it does not follow actual power consumption levels.

For this data, I have added the times for the daily minimum, and the daily maximum, to show how they do not correlate with the actual times of minimum power consumption (4AM) and maximum power consumption. (around 6/6.30PM in Winter and earlier during the Summer Months.)

Daily Minimum – 240MW (5.05PM)

Daily Peak – 940MW (2.55AM)

Average Wind Generation – 570MW

Total Generated Power – 13.68GWH

Average Percentage Of Total – 2.54%

Solar Power Plant Generation

This image shows the total power generated from all the solar power plants in this coverage area. This is the same as for the red coloured area you can just see in that top image.

The total Nameplate for all these 35 solar plants is 2982MW.

Daily Minimum – Zero

Daily Peak – 1410MW

Average Solar Plant Generation for hours of generation – 730MW (7.00AM till 5.30PM)

Average Solar Plant Generation across the whole 24 hour day – 320MW

Total Generated Power – 7.68GWH

Average Percentage Of Total across the whole 24 hour day – 1.43%

Rooftop Solar Power Generation

As this source of power generation is classed as ‘behind the meter’, it is not included in the total power generation. Note here that the State of Queensland (QLD on the legend under the graph) is broken down into four separate areas as this is the largest State with the largest number of installations.

While the total Nameplate changes often, the latest information is that the total is now 8000MW and higher, and that is a large total. However, that total equates to almost 2 Million homes with panels on their roof. That equates to an average sized installation of 4.3KW. Most of the power is consumed by the homes with the panels, and what is fed back to the grid is only consumed in the local residential areas. While seemingly still high this total is spread across that huge number of installations across the whole of this coverage area.

Daily Minimum – Zero

Daily Peak – 2410MW

Average For Hours of Generation – 1100MW (7.00AM till 5.30PM)

Average Rooftop Solar Generation across the whole 24 hour day – 480MW

Total Generated Power – 11.52GWH

Average Percentage Of Total across the whole 24 hour day – 2.14%

Wind And Solar Power Generation Versus Total Power Generation

This image shows the total power generated from all the wind plants, and all the solar power plants in this coverage area, combined in the one image, and compares it to the overall total generated power, the black line at the top of the graph, which also includes RTS as well. Wind power is the green coloured area, and solar plant power is the red coloured area, and these are the same as shown in those other coloured images at the top of the Post.

I have also added the data below for the total generated power for both wind and solar plant power combined, and the percentage of the overall total below for the maximum power from both sources with respect to the overall total, both at the maximum for both, and then for the total for both at the daily peak Power time.

Daily Peak for Wind and Solar Plant Power – 2000MW

Average Across the whole day – 890MW

Total Generated Power – 21.36GWH

Average Percentage of Total across the whole 24 hour day – 3.97%

Total Generated power at the daily maximum for both wind and solar plant power, the time of that maximum, and percentage of the total at that daily maximum –  2000MW – 12.00PM – 9.48%

Total Generated power for wind and solar plant power at Peak Power Consumption time for the day, and percentage of total at that daily Peak Power time – 400MW – 6.20PM – 1.48%

Overall Total With Rooftop Solar Power Added

This image shows the overall total generated power with Rooftop Solar Power (RTS) added to the total from all of the power plants. RTS is shown here as that orange colour added near the top of the graph in the middle, during daylight hours, and is indicated on the legend below the graph as Rooftop PV (PhotoVoltaics). The new overall total is that black line along the top of the Load Curve. Note here that with this RTS total added, the shape of the full load curve, the black line now looks almost exactly as Summer load curves used to look prior to the advent of RTS, and all those panels on roofs of private dwellings.

Notes

  1. Finding Averages – On each (non solar) graph, there are 25 hourly time points, starting with midnight and finishing with midnight. I have added the total at each time point together, and divided by 25.
  2. For both solar power averages, I have used the same addition of hourly time points and then divided by the same number of those time points of actual generation. Every so often, as the days get longer (or shorter after Summer) I change the hours of generation as those hours change.
  3. For total power in GWH, multiply the average daily power by 24, and then divide by 1000.
  4. The total percentages for coal fired power, natural gas fired power, all renewables, and those other smaller sources add up to 100%.
  5. The total percentages for Hydro, Wind, and Solar adds up to the total percentage for all Renewables.
  6. Total Generated Power is expressed here as GWH (GigaWattHours) and a GWH is a MWH (MegaWattHour) multiplied by 1000

Comments For This Day

Day two of the weekend, and power consumption was basically the same as it was on the day before, with total power generation for this day coming in at 537.6GWH, at an average of 22400MW, just 50MW higher than it was for the day before.

The early AM Base Load was 300MW lower at 18100MW, but it was that 18100/18200MW for almost a full hour and a half around that 4AM time point of lowest power generation for the day. The evening peak was higher by 1000MW and a little later in the evening at 6.20PM coming in at 27100MW. Across the five States with their peaks at differing times, the peak in New South Wales (NSW) was 550MW higher. In Queensland, it was 150MW higher. In Victoria, it was 120MW higher. In the two States with the lowest power consumption, the peak in South Australia was 100MW higher, and in Tasmania, it was 130MW higher.

While the overall rose by a small amount, the average for coal fired power was lower on the day, down to an hourly average of 16160MW, lower by 180MW. The range between the low for the day and the high was 3980MW, and coal fired power generated a maximum on the day of 17410MW. In NSW, Unit 3 at the Eraring plant came back on line at 6PM, and slowly raised its output, and by Midnight, it was at around a quarter of that maximum output for that Unit. There are now eight of those coal fired Units off line, four in Queensland, and two each in NSW and Victoria.

The average for natural gas fired power was higher on the day by 100MW. The average for those smaller Other sources was also higher on the day, up by 20MW. The average for hydro power was higher on the day by 140MW, and the average for solar plant power was lower on the day by 50MW.

After the extreme low of the day before for wind power, it was really not much better on this day, only higher by just 20MW to an hourly average of 570MW, the second lowest power generation day for the year after the day before. That average of 570MW gave wind power a daily operational Capacity Factor (CF) of just 8.69%, and really anyone who is happy with such a huge Nameplate for wind power delivering its power at only 9% of its maximum needs to be educated. That low for wind power at 5.05PM of just 236MW gave wind power a CF at that time of 3.6%, and wind power at that time was delivering 0.93% of the total generated power from every source, less than one percent. Even at peak power time, it was not much better, delivering just 1.5% of all the generated power needed at that critical time.

On a day when the overall was similar to the day before, and coal fired power down a little, coal fired power still delivered 72.14% of all the required power across the Country for the full day.

*****

WEEKLY DATA For Week Thirty Seven.

Notes For Weekly and Rolling Totals

  1. Here, the Overall is 100%, so Coal + Natural Gas (NG) + Other + Renewable adds up to that 100%
  2. Hydro, Wind and Solar add up to the total for Renewable.
  3. For the first Rolling Total, Rooftop Solar Power (which is behind the meter) is a percentage of the overall total and on top of that total.
  4. For the second Rolling Total, Rooftop Solar Power is added to the total overall power generation, and new percentages are calculated from that new overall total.
  5. Total Generated Power is expressed here as GWH (GigaWattHours) and a GWH is a MWH (MegaWattHour) multiplied by 1000.

WEEKLY TOTALS (In GWH)

Week       Total          Coal            NG           Other        Renew        Hydro        Wind        Solar        Rooftop Solar

37            3841.2     2680.32     350.16        96.72          714            358.08      302.16      53.76           100.32

Percent of total        69.78%      9.12%        2.51%      18.59%        9.32%         7.87%       1.40%          2.61%.

COMMENTS for this week.

With a Public Holiday on the first day (the Monday) of the week, and not as much widespread winter cold this week, power consumption was lower this week, and that overall power generation for the week of 3841.2GWH was 7.2% lower than it was for the week before this one, and that’ total generated power for the week is at an hourly average (for 24 hours of seven days) of 222854MW, a fall of 1767MW over last week’s average, a pretty substantial fall, just showing how the lower power consumption of one day can have an effect on the overall by this much.

When it came to the daily indicators, the lowest Base Load or the week was on Sunday when it was 18100MW, and the highest was on Thursday at 18600MW, and keep in mind here that the yearly average is 18000MW. The lowest peak was on the Saturday when it was 26100MW, and the highest peak was on two days, Wednesday and Thursday when it reached 27500MW. The lowest average for the week was on Saturday when it was 22350MW, and the highest average for the week was 23600MW on Wednesday, and while the high average was a little lower than the week before, the low average was higher, showing that Winter is starting to kick in. That difference of between the low and the high average for the week was only 5.7%, when in recent weeks it has been as high as 20%.

Coal fired power delivered a little less power this week than for the week before, but not by the same margin as the overall fell. That total power delivered by coal fired power of 2680.32MW was at an hourly average across the week of 15954MW. The highest range low to high on any given day was 4740MW on Monday, and the highest power generation from coal fired power for the week was 17490MW on Saturday. This week there were between eight and ten of those coal fired Units off line, mostly nine of them.

With that overall down by such a relatively large margin, all sectors were lower, but only by proportion, as those percentages for total power delivered by source were similar to the week before.

I mentioned above that more solar power plants were added to the grid, so, while solar power is decreasing with the onset of Winter, it was actually a little higher this week, but keep in mind here that solar plants are still only delivering 1.4% of all the generated power.

I also mentioned that wind power also added some more Nameplate this week, with new plants coming on line, adding around 550MW to the total Nameplate for wind power. Even so, wind power had two of the lowest power generating days for this year on the Saturday and the Sunday. That went with two days around the average (one slightly higher and one slightly lower) one day when it was up on the average and two really good days. Overall, it almost evened out to an average week for wind power. That total generated power from wind power for the week of 302.16GWH meant that wind power delivered at an hourly average across the week of 1793MW and with the new Nameplate total, that gave wind power a weekly operational Capacity Factor of 27.43%, a little lower than the year round average of 30%.

With the overall down and coal fired power lower but not by as much, coal fired power was a little higher in percentage of the total generated power for this week, coming in at 69.78% of all generated power for the whole week.

*****

ROLLING TOTALS After Week Thirty Seven (In GWH) (Just power generation from power plants with rooftop solar behind the meter)

For these totals, Coal + NG + Other + Renewable = 100%. Hydro + Wind + Solar = Renewable Percentage

Week       Total          Coal            NG           Other        Renew        Hydro        Wind        Solar        Rooftop Solar

37         139468.8    102372     11950.8     3005.76   22140.24    9186.48    10425.84  2527.92       6635.16

Percent of total        73.40%      8.57%       2.16%        15.87%        6.59%        7.47%      1.81%          4.76%

ROLLING TOTALS After Week Thirty Seven (In GWH) (With rooftop solar added to the renewable total, and the overall total, and new percentages calculated from that new overall total)

For these totals, Coal + NG + Other + Renewable = 100%. Hydro + Wind + Solar + Rooftop Solar = Renewable Percentage

Week       Total          Coal            NG           Other        Renew        Hydro        Wind        Solar        Rooftop Solar

37        146103.96    102372     11950.8     3005.76    28775.4     9186.48    10425.84   2527.92      6635.16

Percent of total        70.07%      8.18%       2.06%        19.69%         6.29%       7.13%       1.73%          4.54%

COMMENTS for this week.

Those percentage changed very little this week, just the odd hundredth of a percentage point here and there.

What has changed, as I mentioned in the UPDATE at the top of this day’s Post is the Nameplate for wind power, and that again has necessitated a change in the rolling Capacity Factor (CF) for wind. If I use the current increased Nameplate and do the calculation for total generated power over these 37 weeks, then the CF comes in at just a tick under 26%. So, for greater accuracy, I reworked the CF calculations for each change in Nameplate over these 37 weeks. The new CF for wind power for 37 weeks is 28.13%, so you can see the difference, and while only a little more than 2%, that is in fact a large difference.

Note that the second Rolling Total, with rooftop solar power included, that the percentage delivered from those four renewables is still below 20%, and take out hydro power, the enormous amount of money expended on those three other renewables of choice has only resulted in 13.4% of all generated power. Even with that increase in Nameplate for wind power, that percentage of delivered power has only changed marginally, so to no real extra effect.

Coal fired power is still rolling along at over 70% of all the generated power from every source.

Anton Lang uses the scren name of TonyfromOz, and he writes at this site, PA Pundits International on topics related to electrical power generation, from all sources, concentrating mainly on Renewable Power, and how the two most favoured methods of renewable power generation, Wind Power and all versions of Solar Power, fail comprehensively to deliver levels of power required to replace traditional power generation. His Bio is at this link.

OzPowerGenerationTFO

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