Australian Politics – Bigger Surplus A Danger For The Labor Party, But Dare The Liberal Government Wait Until May?

Posted on Mon 12/17/2018 by


By Andrew Bolt ~

Good news for the Morrison Government:

Next year’s long-awaited ­return to surplus… will be revised up in today’s budget update… to just over $4bn… This is forecast to… reach accumulated surpluses of $30bn by 2021-22.

Most of the improvement comes from surging revenue, not more cuts. Will that rise in revenue continue, given the recent poor growth figures?

But Labor now has a standard of failure: another surplus to destroy. This is a danger for them should they win the next election.

Labor also loses a campaign attack – yes, the Liberals have now (finally) delivered the surplus that Labor never did when last in office.

But this news poses a question for the Liberals? Do they now dare wait for revised figures in April’s Budget – figures that may not be so healthy? Or should they now go to a March election?

Terry McCrann:

Why do I argue this? Those “weak” September quarter GDP figures and the developing credit squeeze — which could approach that of 1990, which sent us spiralling into the worst recession since the war — alluded to by the Reserve Bank in its ostensibly unchanged interest rate decision and policy outlook.

The 0.3 per cent September quarter growth figure posed the question of whether the economy had weakened or was in the process of weakening. In contrast to the more hysterical commentary, it did not answer it in the affirmative.There is though, enough — perhaps even too much — broad granular context to be concerned…

The RBA — and I presume Treasury — is going to spend January doing two things. The first is simply to see “what develops”, both domestically and globally. It will also revise its forecasts for the February Policy Statement. Any budget document, any policy promises, which followed that statement will have to reflect both the forecast reality and even more obviously the emerging economic and financial realities.

In contrast the MYEFO [which we have today] will — and any closely following PEFO [Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal Outlook], on an early election call would also — be built on the still positive economic forecasts; and indeed also on the, despite the September quarter GDP, positive current economic reality.

Andrew Bolt writes for the Herald Sun, Daily Telegraph, and The Advertiser and runs Australia’s most-read political blog. On week nights he hosts The Bolt Report on Sky News at 7pm and his Macquarie Radio show at 8pm with Steve Price.

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