Australian Politics – Super Saturday By-Elections: The Leader In Strife Is Prime Minister Turnbull

Posted on Sun 07/29/2018 by


By Andrew Bolt ~

For months the media story was that Labor leader Bill Shorten could be destroyed by today’s byelections.

But with almost everything running for the Turnbull Government – media coverage, the Emma Husar scandal, Anthony Albanese needling Shorten, One Nation preferences switching to the Liberals in Longman – Labor has won Longman easily and will probably win Braddon, too, if these trends hold.

Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull

So now we should talk about the real leadership dud: Malcolm Turnbull.How could this have gone so badly? Are the Liberals really sure that Turnbull can now lead them to victory?

For one, the media narrative this year that Shorten would be blown away must and will now change. How much longer can this farcical denial continue?

Remember how Shorten would lose the Batman byelection, be blown out of the water by the Liberals’ tax cuts, by knifed by Albanese and, now, lose Longman or Braddon, or both?


If a Liberal candidate in an outer-suburban seat in Queensland gets a primary vote of just 26 per cent, the next federal election will be lost in Queensland alone.


Interestingly, the Labor vote after preferences in Longman and Braddon is (so far) way up on every poll published, including even the Newspoll today which finally tipped Labor to win both at 51 per cent to the Government’s 49.

The AEC tips Labor – with 40 per cent of the vote counted – to win Longman by 55 per cent to 45.

It tips Labor – with 68 per cent of the vote counted – to win Braddon by 52 per cent to 48.


Not enough attention is paid to the result in Mayo. If the Liberals, with a good candidate like Georgina Downer, gets even fewer first-preference votes than they did last time when the scandal-plauged Jame Briggs was their candidate, they really are in strife.

I look forward with interest to how the Turnbull cheer squad spin this. Seems to me they’d rather lose under Turnbull than win under someone else.


“Delcon” doesn’t have a sting any more. Delusional is pretending these results are anything but bad for the Liberals – especially a primary vote in a suburban Queensland seat of just 26 per cent.

The LNP’s Queensland president, Gary Spence, didn’t get Miranda’s memo. He’s just said the Longman result was disappointing.


Memo to media: as Shorten proved at the federal electiion, he is a much better campaigner than the knockers claim. The Liberals should now realise that pinning hope on Shorten’s alleged unpopularity and relying on a kill-Bill strategy is simply no subsitute for having the right policies, right lines and right results.

Tip: electricity prices.

Andrew Bolt writes for the Herald Sun, Daily Telegraph, and The Advertiser and runs Australia’s most-read political blog. On week nights he hosts The Bolt Report on Sky News at 7pm and his Macquarie Radio show at 8pm with Steve Price.

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