By Andrew Bolt ~
I said after two weeks of this campaign that the Labor Party had been crippled by the number of candidates who thought our border laws too strong. This was not just damaging on its own, but reminded voters how recently Labor wrecked so much.
But the final blow to any of Labor’s hopes was its astonishingly stupid announcement that it would spend more and borrow more than even the Liberals over the next four years.
That was a disaster. It proved that Labor still cannot be trusted with your money, and made every spending promise since seem even more reckless.
I still cannot believe Labor did something so boneheaded – so against both the national interest and its own – especially when many of its big-spending promises lately have about as much punch-through as white noise. It should have just scrapped them and banked the savings.
With just two weeks until polling day, a special Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Weekend Australian in 10 government-held marginal seats, plus the safe seat of Mayo, reveals Labor would win only one — the new Perth electorate of Burt, with a swing of 8 per cent.
In the government’s second-most marginal seat of Capricornia, in central Queensland, which it holds by 0.77 per cent, Labor’s primary vote has gone backwards, leaving the parties deadlocked at 50-50.
Labor and the Liberals are also tied in Macarthur, on Sydney’s southwestern fringe, where the Nick Xenophon Team has captured 7 per cent of the vote.
In seven other seats where the opposition needs a swing of between 3 and 6 per cent to win — the Queensland electorates of Herbert and Brisbane, Victorian marginals Dunkley and Corangamite, the NSW seats of Robertson and Lindsay, and Bass in northern Tasmania — the government is holding its lead after 42 days of campaigning.
The results are mixed for the government in South Australia, where all parties are under siege from the Xenophon juggernaut.
In Mayo, Newspoll reveals a bombshell 14.5 per cent two-candidate-preferred swing against the government, putting the Nick Xenophon Team ahead by 52 per cent to 48 per cent.
Some consolation for Labor from the latest IPSOS poll, putting it ahead overall, 51 per cent to 49.
Labor … has held on to a narrow overall lead during the past fortnight despite a strident Coalition attack on economic management, but the prospect of a hung parliament has increased as voters flock to third parties, potentially making players such as Nick Xenophon and the Greens the kingmakers who decide who governs after July 2….
Fully 28 per cent of voters plan to support candidates other than Labor or the Coalition with their first preference vote – a higher proportion than at any time since the Coalition came to office…
The Greens’ party vote stands at a creditable 14 per cent, up one point in a fortnight… Another 14 per cent intend to support “others”….
Labor’s primary vote has dropped to a perilously low 33 per cent – a drop of three points since June 2 – while the Coalition primary vote has fallen faster to 39 (down 3) – the first time it has had a “3” in front of it since the days of Tony Abbott’s unpopular leadership when it reached 38 per cent.
This suggests that if Labor had looked more responsible, it could have cleaned up. So could a responsible and secular conservative party, not yet invented.
Andrew Bolt writes for the Herald Sun, Daily Telegraph, and The Advertiser and runs Australia’s most-read political blog. On week nights he hosts The Bolt Report on Sky News at 7pm and his Macquarie Radio show at 8pm with Steve Price.