By Andrew Bolt ~
I still can’t see the Australian Labor Party picking up more than 10 seats, although the electorate seems so resentful that any last-minute issue could set it off.
But Labor friends in the campaign still hope for better, and today I read this:
Labor is on track to secure the largest number of seats it has held in Western Australia since 2001… Recent analysis of state-based opinion polls and individual seat polls by The Australian Financial Review shows the biggest swing against the Turnbull government is occurring in Western Australia, where the analysis shows a swing of as much as 10.6 per cent to Labor…
Using a conservative estimate that accounts for a margin of error of about 4.5 per cent, Labor would pick up the newly created seat of Burt, Hasluck and Cowan, where Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull campaigned on Tuesday. Labor is also hopeful it can secure Swan, where it needs a swing of 7.3 per cent… If achieved, a swing of 10.6 per cent to Labor could deliver the party up to six seats, including [Christian] Porter’s seat of Pearce… Labor currently holds three WA seats
Reader Peter of Bellevue Hill:
AB, another timely reminder that the Turnbull wreckers used a (hopelessly inaccurate) poll prediction of a 10 per cent 2pp swing in the Canning by-election as a justification to move against Abbott. How does the Liberal party room feel about a 10 per cent WA-wide swing under Turnbull? All good in the hood?
The Australian Labor Party has edged ahead of the Coalition in a new poll with almost one in three voters rating the government “out of touch”. The latest Essential poll gives Labor a 51-49 two-party preferred lead. Labor’s primary vote of 37 per cent is 3.6 points above its 2013 result, while the Liberal-Nationals primary vote of 41 per cent is 4.6 per cent below the previous election. However, Labor would benefit from Greens preferences, with the minor party on 10 per cent of the primary vote.
Andrew Bolt writes for the Herald Sun, Daily Telegraph, and The Advertiser and runs Australia’s most-read political blog. On week nights he hosts The Bolt Report on Sky News at 7pm and his Macquarie Radio show at 8pm with Steve Price.