Trump Surges: 53 Per Cent. UPDATE: Blitzes Florida. UPDATE: Rubio Quits

Posted on Wed 03/16/2016 by

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Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~

Background:

Again let me mention that this is big news here in Australia, where the Primaries are being reported virtually as they happen, something that has hardly rated a mention in previous years Presidential Campaigns. The early part of this Post deals with news in the lead up to the Florida Primary, and the Updates show reporting from the Primary count…..TonyfromOz.

The popular theory about Donald Trump, as explained by the New York Times:

Trump-evan_0First, there is some good evidence that Trump’s support has a ceiling. He isn’t the second choice of very many voters…

Second, the establishment is unlikely to give up easily against him. While the establishment vote has been spread out across three or four candidates for most of this cycle, it will eventually consolidate around a single candidate. That candidate will have virtually unlimited resources to test whether or not Trump’s support does have a ceiling. I suspect they will find it does.

His opponents put the limit of Trump’s support at 30 to 40 per cent:

Marco Rubio voiced the conventional wisdom that guides much horse-race commentary about the GOP campaign: “Part of the dynamic up to this point,” Rubio declared, “is Donald [Trump] has been, you know, in the mid 30s to low 30s, high 20s, in most polls, and then you have 70 percent of the Republican electorate that says, ‘We’re not voting for him.’ But they’re divided up among five or seven people. So as that five or seven people continues to narrow down, I think it’s going make the race clearer and clearer.” Ted Cruz has said much the same thing: “Donald Trump … has a passionate, committed base of supporters, but he’s got a ceiling—between 60 and 70 percent of Republican primary voters.”

That theory is wrong:

trump_poll_thumb

UPDATE

Steve Schmidt, senior adviser to George W. Bush’s 2004 campaign before becoming John McCain’s senior campaign strategist in 2008:

[Trump’s rivals] misunderstood the nature of the Trump candidacy and the need to be as big as Trump, in an oppositional sense. None of them rose to the bigness of a moment that has seen a total collapse in institutions — an era of systemic fraud, combined with flat wage growth over a generation, and with no solutions offered. It’s the job of a leader to contextualize all of that and to explain both the struggles today and the possibility of triumph tomorrow. How many speeches of great American leaders like F.D.R. or Eisenhower do you think these candidates read before they ran for president? I think not too many.

If you can’t even define the problems, voters can’t trust you to give the solutions.

UPDATE 2

There is a clear answers to Frank Chung’s question, as his article makes disturbingly clear:

Is the media inciting violence against Donald Trump?

UPDATE 3

It is early in the count in Florida, the must-win home state of Marco Rubio. But already it seems Rubio is being smashed and his last hopes destroyed. Trump has the nomination in his grasp.

UPDATE 4

FloridaPrimary

The most recent count shows 90 per cent of votes now counted, it’s still Trump ahead by a smashing 45.7 per cent to Rubio’s humiliating 27 per cent.

Not two weeks ago Rubio said this:

I believe with all my heart that the winner of the Florida primary will be the nominee of the Republican Party.

UPDATE 5

The only minor hitch for Trump is that Governor John Kasich looks like winning his home state of Ohio, which is nice for him but a platform for nothing. Trump is narrowly leading Cruz in North Carolina, and by more in Missouri.

UPDATE 6

Rubio quits. It is finally – but too late – a head to head between Trump and Cruz, with just Kasich running interference.

Andrew Bolt is a journalist and columnist writing for The Herald Sun in Melbourne Victoria Australia.

Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am. He is also heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of radio station MTR 1377, and his book  Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.

Read more excellent articles from Andrew Bolt’s Blog . http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/