Climate Models Are Running Too Hot. The CSIRO’s, Too

Posted on Fri 02/12/2016 by


Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~

Michael Asten, professor of geophysics at Monash University, warns against trusting the climate models that predicted dangerous heating of the planet:


Cuts to the government-funded climate change program at the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) coincide with a powerful critique of climate models by John Christy in a US congressional committee hearing…

Christy, a distinguished professor of atmospheric science and the Alabama state climatologist, presented the graph reproduced here showing the remarkable failure of a set of 102 predictions via climate models, as created by groups around the world, to provide a model trend (in red) matching observed warming of the global atmosphere across the past 20 years.

Observed data from two independent datasets (weather balloons and satellites) shows a rate of warming for 1995-2015 that is a factor of 2.5 lower than the averaged predictions from those of 102 modelling groups scattered around the globe. A model contributed by the CSIRO, incidentally, is close to the average; seems that (with apologies to Gilbert and Sullivan) on this little list, they’d none of them be missed….

Christy commented, “…I would not trust model projections on which all policy is based right now because it just don’t match facts right now.” Australians who have paid about $10 billion for three mothballed desalination plants on the east coast, commissioned largely on the basis that climate predictions during the great drought of 1995-2007 said that “the dams may never fill again”, will resonate with Christy’s conclusion…

Having been part of the climate science debate for seven years I have observed enormous groupthink pressures towards the conclusions of the climate science establishment in the Western world.

Or as the new head of the CSIRO admitted before feeling forced to apologise:

I guess I had the realisation that the climate lobby is perhaps more powerful than the energy lobby was back in the ‘70s – and the politics of climate I think there’s a lot of emotion in this debate. In fact it almost sounds more like religion than science to me.

Andrew Bolt is a journalist and columnist writing for The Herald Sun in Melbourne Victoria Australia.

Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am. He is also heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of radio station MTR 1377, and his book  Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.

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