Every Developed Country’s overall pledge to reduce CO2 emissions by 2030 will be totally cancelled out by China before this Paris deal even starts in 2020.
By Anton Lang ~
Overnight, an agreement was reached in Paris to deal with Climate Change. Just one of many articles in all sections of the media is shown at this link from my home Country here in Australia. Note that in the article it says this:
The new treaty will commence in 2020.
Now that everyone involved is basking in the glow of the deal which has been reached at the UNFCCC COP21 Climate Change Conference in Paris, are those CO2 emissions reduction pledges made by the Developed Countries of the World really enough?
Even John Kerry says that they are not enough. Watch this short video showing John Kerry speaking in Paris during this conference, and listen very closely to what he says.
This video was posted to You Tube by The Daily Signal
Here again is that last statement of his: (my bolds here)
If all the industrial nations went down to zero emissions – remember what I just said, all the industrial emissions went down to zero emissions – it wouldn’t be enough, not when more than 65 percent of the world’s carbon pollution comes from the developing world.
So then, is there any truth in that statement? Is what he said correct?
Well, yes. It is correct.
Every Country in the already Developed World has made pledges to reduce the emissions of Carbon Dioxide. (CO2) Those commitments range in scope from 20% to 40%, and for each Country, the target years for that total reduction is between 2025 and 2035.
Here in my home Country of Australia, that total is for a 26% reduction and the target year is 2030. In the U.S. the target is between 26% and 28%, and the target year is by 2025. (For the US pledge I have a detailed two Post series on that shown at this link, which is for the Introduction, with the two main Posts, with their links at that introduction)
Those reduction targets seem to be by quite a substantial amount, and even if they are achieved, they will be cancelled out quite quickly, just by China alone, and let me show you exactly how what is happening in China will do just that.
There are plans already in place to construct well more than 2,400 of those large scale coal fired power plants in Countries still considered to be developing, mainly in the Asian region, China, and India. Just in China alone, there are plans for around half of that overall total for new power plants. That’s plants at the proposal stage, in planning, or already under construction.
Each new large scale power plant, and here we are talking 2000MW Plus per plant, well, each one of those will be burning around 5 Million tonnes of coal each year, so, the CO2 emissions from each of those new plants will be in the vicinity of around 15 million tonnes of CO2.
What are they going to do with respect to this agreement in Paris? Are they just going to hide the fact that China is building new coal fired power plants hand over fist, with India also ramping up it’s construction of them also. Can’t these people see that, and surely they must know that there ARE people who can see that. Do they just ignore the fact that those new plants are being built?
Look at it this way.
Australia is aiming for a target of a 26% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2030. That’s around 1.73% a year averaged. Right now Australia is emitting around 410 Million tonnes of CO2 a year, so that’s a reduction of 7.1 million tonnes a year.
China is bringing on line (at least) one new large scale coal fired power plant each week. Each of those new plants will add around 15 million tonnes of CO2 a year to China’s total CO2 emissions. That’s a little more than double Australia’s YEARLY hoped for cutback, so our total aimed for 15 YEAR reduction will be negated by China in a tick over 6 or 7 weeks with new plants coming on line.
So then, let’s look at the U.S. They emit 5.4 Billion tonnes of CO2. The U.S. is also aiming for a 26 to 28% reduction in their CO2 emissions by 2025, so that is around 2.6% a year averaged. So that reduction in the U.S. comes in at around 140 Million tonnes a year.
That yearly cut for the U.S. will be negated in its entirety by just China alone in just over NINE WEEKS, and it’s 10 year target in just under two years. (22 Months in fact)
The other major emitter, the European Union as a whole is aiming for a similar reduction to the U.S. so that’s around another year and a half.
Add all of those together, and the time frame comes in at less than 5 years from right now, and that 5 years takes us to 2020, which, according to this Paris agreement, is the START date for this deal.
So, while the Developed World hopes to reduce its emissions by 2025/30, they will be totally and utterly cancelled out by China by 2020.
And that’s just dealing with what is happening in China, and not including those other plants in South East Asia, India, and in other still Developing Countries
How do people not see that? How does the UN hide it? Do they expect us to just look the other way?
John Kerry got it 100% right.
It’s not enough.
Anton Lang uses the screen name of TonyfromOz, and he writes at this site, PA Pundits International on topics related to electrical power generation, from all sources, concentrating mainly on Renewable Power, and how the two most favoured methods of renewable power generation, Wind Power and all versions of Solar Power, fail comprehensively to deliver levels of power required to replace traditional power generation. His Bio is at this link.