UN Climate Change Conference Paris – Emissions Reduction Targets Ignored By Non Target Countries

Posted on Mon 09/21/2015 by

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Developed Countries pressured to reduce emissions. Non Developed Countries ignore calls for reductions.

TonyfromOzProfileImageBy Anton Lang ~

The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) upcoming Climate Change Conference (COP 21) will be held in Paris, and is scheduled for December this year. The UN is desperately seeking to lock into place deals for Paris. The main aim is to keep the World’s temperature from rising by 2 degrees Celsius. (2C) To achieve that, the UN is asking Developed Countries to lock into place emissions reduction targets, saying that this is the only way that 2C target can be achieved.

logocop21-ppalThe UN hopes to achieve this via the introduction of an ETS, (Emissions Trading Schemes) so that 24 Developed Countries, categorised by the UN as Annexe ll Countries can impose a Tax on those CO2 emissions, with all the money raised from that to then be sent off to the UN for distribution among those other 153 Countries which the UN has categorised as still Developing, and, as mandated by the UNFCCC, those still Developing Countries need do nothing.

This is the link to that list of the already Developed Countries, with Annexe ll Countries bracketed as (a)

So, those 24 Target Countries have been directed to lock in place emissions reduction targets of around 23 to 26%, virtually all of them, and most of them have already committed to doing just that

So then, let’s look at the CO2 emissions from those 24 Countries, and here keep in mind that this is just for CO2 emissions and does not include the 23 other equivalent gases and their multipliers, which in fact would add to that overall total.

A list of those 24 Greenhouse Gases is shown at this link. Note that CO2 is the reference gas and is valued at 1. The other 23 gases are then calculated from CO2, with their multipliers shown in the next column, that gases Global Warming Potential. (GWP) This means is that the total emissions in tonnes of that gas is then multiplied by that number and the cost is then calculated from that, meaning that the emissions of that gas in Tonnes is the Carbon Credit cost multiplied by that number. As written in the notes below the table, this is taken directly from the UNFCCC.

When calculating the total CO2 emissions from those 24 Countries, all the European Countries count as the EU, and the total emissions of CO2 from those 24 Countries comes in at 16 Billion tonnes, which is just a tick under 50% of total Worldwide CO2 emissions, which are currently 35 Billion Tonnes.

So, here we have the UN calling for reductions in the amount of 23 to 26%, so that means that these 24 Countries MUST reduce their emissions by around 4 Billion Tonnes.

The UN has said that this is the ONLY path acceptable to keep within that 2C temperature rise is for these 24 Countries to reduce their CO2 emissions by 4 Billion tonnes.

Then, this article appeared barely 7 days ago.

Coal remains best solution to energy poverty

I’m going to include a couple of excerpts from this article to show some facts that not everyone is aware of.

The first is this, where there is mention of new technology, UltraSuperCritical (USC) coal fired power: (For further explanation of USC coal fired power, see this Post of mine, which was also featured at the JoNova site in April of 2013)

The striking and underappreciated thing about these new coal plants is that they are reducing carbon dioxide emissions by between 25 and 40 per cent. Compared with some of the oldest generating plants, the emissions savings are up to 50 per cent. In addition, when coupled with the latest technology, they also virtually eliminate particulate pollution.

…..

The bottom line is that the market for low emissions coal generation is huge. The reasons are straightforward. The technology is affordable and reliable. Because they are more efficient, they use less coal and cost less to run. The CO₂ emissions are comparable with natural gas and the levels of particulate emissions are even lower.

Then the article also mentions this:

These developments are a bonus for everyone. It is good news for hundreds of millions of people in Asia who still have limited or no access to power. An indisputable fact is that human and industrial development is impossible without energy.

…..

Coal remains the best and fastest route out of energy poverty.

However, the most telling thing from this article is the following:

That’s why, according to the IEA report, coal power plants with a massive 672 gigawatts of (Nameplate) capacity are under construction or planned in Asian economies.

…..

And those savings come from cleaner modern coal plants in just 10 nations in East Asia.

Shanghai Electric GW Class USC Turbine Generator Unit

New Technology Coal Fired USC 1000MW single unit at Shanghai Waigaoqiao III Power Plant

So, ten Countries in the Asian region have plans for the construction of coal fired power plants totalling 672GW of Nameplate Capacity. For some perspective on what that may be, a typical large scale coal fired power plant has a Nameplate of 2 GW, so this total equates to 336 equivalent large scale power plants, but it will be more than that number because a lot of these plans are for smaller plants. For further perspective, the total power generated from 672GW of Nameplate capacity comes in at around 3.4 times the total power generated by EVERY coal fired power plant in the U.S.

Using the calculation for total emissions for these new tech USC power plants, then from that Nameplate 672GW of NEW latest technology coal fired power, there will be CO2 emissions amounting to 6.3 Billion tonnes. (For large scale older plants, emissions are 330 grams per KWH being generated. For this new USC technology, emissions are down to 282 grams per KWH generated.)

Say, wait a minute.

In the UN’s desperation to set up deals hoping to keep a Worldwide temperature rise at 2C, those 24 Target Countries have to lower their emissions by 4 Billion tonnes, and yet 10 Countries, who need do nothing, will be increasing their emissions by 6.3 Billion tonnes, which not only totally cancels out those reductions, but adds an extra 2.3 Billion tonnes on top. And that’s only from TEN Countries in the Asian region.

What this indicates most effectively is that those Countries which are still Developing are just thumbing their nose at the UN, wholly aware of, and now taking advantage of, the fact that they need really do nothing, as mandated by the UNFCCC itself.

Who is willing to bet that the UN will NOT be telling those 10 Countries that for the sake of this 2C target, they cannot proceed with that new plant construction. And if by the most unbelievable belief that the UN actually grows a pair, and does tell them that, who is willing to bet what the reply will be from those 10 Countries.

Isn’t it odd that when Science meets Maths, the results just don’t seem to correlate.

Anton Lang uses the screen name of TonyfromOz, and he writes at this site, PA Pundits International on topics related to electrical power generation, from all sources, concentrating mainly on Renewable Power, and how the two most favoured methods of renewable power generation, Wind Power and all versions of Solar Power, fail comprehensively to deliver levels of power required to replace traditional power generation. His Bio is at this link.