Climate Change Hype – War Delayed. El Nino Hides. 90 Per Cent Certainty Cools

Posted on Wed 08/06/2014 by

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Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~

Global Warming - Religion of the Stupid300The Guardian’s resident alarmists trumpeted the alarm in June with 90 per cent certainty:

The global El Niño weather phenomenon, whose impacts cause global famines, floods – and even wars – now has a 90% chance of striking this year, according to the latest forecast released to the Guardian…

The latest El Niño prediction comes from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which is considered one the most reliable of the 15 or so prediction centres around the world.

Wars even! Ninety per cent sure of it!

Oops. August tells another story:

Last month, forecasters were predicting with 90 per cent certainty we’d see an El Niño by the end of the year, driving severe weather patterns worldwide.

But the atmosphere has ”largely failed to respond” to sea surface temperatures and scientists’ confidence in an El Nino developing in 2014 has eased a bit, says the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, whose climate models now put the chances of this happening at about 50 per cent.

How strange. How typical. It’s the atmosphere which “failed”, and not the warmists’ computer models.

And not for the first time. From an Age beat-up in Feburary 2009:

VICTORIA is likely to come under the influence of another El Nino within the next three years, exacerbating the drought and the likelihood of bushfires, a senior Bureau of Meteorology climate scientist says.

David Jones, the head of the bureau’s (BoM) National Climate Centre, said there was some risk of a worsening El Nino event this year, but it was more likely to arrive in 2010 or 2011.

“We are in the build-up to the next El Nino and already the drought is as bad as it has ever been — in terms of the drought, this may be as good as things get,” Dr Jones said.

Reader handjive:

A quick ‘Google’ for Australian floods in 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012 tell the truth.

The Bureau of Meteorology:

rainfall1_thumb

Isn’t there something wrong with the climate models?

Andrew Bolt is a journalist and columnist writing for The Herald Sun in Melbourne Victoria Australia.

Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am. He is also heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of radio station MTR 1377, and his book  Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.

Read more excellent articles from Andrew Bolt’s Blog . http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/