Climate Change Australia – Did Andrew O’Keefe Really Use A Dodgy Climate Change Survey To Dismiss A Known Fact?

Posted on Sun 05/25/2014 by

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Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~

Global Warming meltdownDid Andrew O’Keefe of Channel 7’s Sunrise really use that bogus and irrelevant “97 per cent of scientists” claim this morning? Seriously?

And did he really do it in contradiction of a fact so obvious that the IPCC, representing that “97 per cent” constituency, actually admits it’s true – that the atmosphere really hasn’t warmed as the models predicted, and that even its own calculations come up with a dramatic slowing of temperature rises?:

The rate of warming over the past 15 years (0.05 degrees per decade) … is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (0.12 degrees per decade)”.

Did O’Keefe really do all this without reading these admissions from the IPCC, buried carefully under a tonne of verbiage and excuses?:

This difference between simulated and observed trends could be caused by some combination of (a) internal climate variability, (b) missing or incorrect radiative forcing, and (c) model response error…

In summary, the observed recent warming hiatus, defined as the reduction in GMST trend during 1998–2012 as compared to the trend during 1951–2012, is attributable in roughly equal measure to a cooling contribution from internal variability and a reduced trend in external forcing (expert judgment, medium confidence). The forcing trend reduction is primarily due to a negative forcing trend from both volcanic eruptions and the downward phase of the solar cycle. However, there is low confidence in quantifying the role of forcing trend in causing the hiatus, because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the volcanic forcing trend and low confidence in the aerosol forcing trend…

The observed global-mean surface temperature (GMST) has shown a much smaller increasing linear trend over the past 15 years than over the past 30 to 60 years…

Depending on the observational data set, the GMST trend over 1998–2012 is estimated to be around one-third to one-half of the trend over 1951–2012 …

Nevertheless, the occurrence of the hiatus in GMST trend during the past 15 years raises the two related questions of what has caused it and whether climate models are able to reproduce it….

This difference between simulated and observed trends could be caused by some combination of (a) internal climate variability, (b) missing or incorrect radiative forcing, and (c) model response error. 

What lazy, lazy stuff from O’Keefe, to dismiss what he hasn’t read or understood by citing a dodgy study he hasn’t read or understood, either. And I bet he even smirked as he did so, such is the invincible ignorance of a man whose measure of the truth is what his friends all agree over a dinner table.

Andrew Bolt is a journalist and columnist writing for The Herald Sun in Melbourne Victoria Australia.

Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am. He is also heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of radio station MTR 1377, and his book  Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.

Read more excellent articles from Andrew Bolt’s Blog . http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/

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