Warmists Suggest Yet Another Excuse For The World Not Warming

Posted on Tue 02/11/2014 by

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Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~Global Warming meltdown

Anthony Watts counts all the excuses warmists are making now for what they so long denied – the planet not warming over the past 16 years as their climate models predicted:

So far, we’ve heard from Climate Science that ‘the pause’ was caused by:

Too much aerosols from volcanoes, ENSO patterns, missing heat that went to the deep ocean, ocean cooling, low solar activity, inappropriately dealt with weather stations in the Arctic, and stadium waves, to name a few. So much for consensus.

Now, it’s trade winds going too fast that are causing abnormal cooling in the Pacific. A new paper from the University of New South Wales says that once the winds return to normal speed, well, look out, the heat is on.

One thing for certain, even though the media is going predictably berserkers over this paper, the paper clearly illustrates that natural variation has been in control, not CO2.

It seems to me such scientists start with this supposition: their faith that man is heating the world dangerously is beyond question, and any evidence that contradicts can be explained away, even if no one yet really knows what that explanation could be.

As for the latest excuse that the missing global warming has mysteriously vanished deep in the oceans, perhaps whipped there by trade winds, Professor Judith Curry, a prominent climate scientist on the luke-warm side of the argument, isn’t impressed:

The main issue of interest is to what extent can ocean heat sequestration explain the hiatus since 1998.  The only data set that appears to provide support for ocean sequestration is the ocean reanalysis, with the Palmer and Domingues 0-700 m OHC climatology providing support for continued warming in the upper ocean.

All in all, I don’t see a very convincing case for deep ocean sequestration of heat.  And even if the heat from surface heating of the ocean did make it into the deep ocean, presumably the only way for this to happen involves mixing (rather than adiabatic processes), so it is very difficult to imagine how this heat could reappear at the surface in light of the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

UPDATE

Well, well. Watts notes that just seven years ago we were told the opposite of what the new Matthew England paper now says: that the Pacific has faster trade winds, and that explains why there’s not so much global warming of the atmosphere:

England’s claim:

The strongest trade winds have driven more of the heat from global warming into the oceans; but when those winds slow, that heat will rapidly return to the atmosphere causing an abrupt rise in global average temperatures.

Heat stored in the western Pacific Ocean caused by an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds appears to be largely responsible for the hiatus in surface warming observed over the past 13 years.

But another paper in Nature in 2006 said the Pacific has had slower, not faster winds, and that shows there is man-made global warming:

The vast loop of winds that drives climate and ocean behavior across the tropical Pacific has weakened by 3.5% since the mid-1800s, and it may weaken another 10% by 2100, according to a study led by University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) scientist Gabriel Vecchi. The study indicates that the only plausible explanation for the slowdown is human-induced climate change.

William Kininmonth, head of Australia‘s National Climate Centre from 1986 to 1998, says England’s paper actually weakens the global warming theory he’s trying to defend:

Without acknowledging same, England et. al. are implicitly drawing on internal variability to explain the recent temperature pause – varying Trade Wind strength is claimed as the driver but no explanation is given as to what is causing the Trade Wind variation. Inadvertently they are opening the possibility of an important role for internal variability as a basis for global temperature variations. This is at odds with the IPCC claim of limited internal variability and further suggests that much of the global warming of the 20th century was not due to increasing carbon dioxide but due to internal variability. It follows that the sensitivity of global temperature and climate to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations is much less than IPCC claims based on computer models.

The England et. al. paper underscores that the science of climate change is far from settled.

Andrew Bolt is a journalist and columnist writing for The Herald Sun in Melbourne Victoria Australia.

Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am. He is also heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of radio station MTR 1377, and his book  Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.

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