Good question from Terry McCrann: Why hasn’t Wayne Swan been sacked?
The Treasurer, Wayne Swan should go, after the disastrous forecasts and assumptions on which his budget was based. It is absolutely fundamental to understand that this is not just a matter of getting forecasts wrong in a volatile and uncertain world….
It is that those forecasts were unrealistic and worse, amateurish from the start…
As I wrote a year ago the budget’s projected “return” to surplus was built on an extraordinary projected $39 billion single-year surge in revenue and a series of fiddles to push spending out of the current year.
But, even so, it would almost certainly stay in deficit. The government bases the now certain (biggish) deficit outcome on a combination of two linked forces: that the terms of trade had fallen more than expected and that nominal GDP had actually grown slower than real GDP. Thereby slashing expected revenues.
Both are tendentious and actually an admission of basic incompetence.
The terms of trade have come off their peak but are still near century-high levels. Indeed, they have arguably stayed higher than what might reasonably have been predicted a year ago…
The projected revenue surge was quite simply built on absurdly optimistic assumptions about capital gains and company tax, to say nothing of the overestimates for the mining tax.
Then, as McCrann says, there was the global warming stupidity embraced by the Government and Treasury…
Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am. He is also heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of radio station MTR 1377, and his book Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.