Gillard’s Poll Numbers Must Soon Rise, or She’ll Soon Fall

Posted on Wed 12/22/2010 by

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Andrew BoltBy Andrew BoltJulia Gillard

 

Much like President Obama is subject to sinking polls, the same is happening in Australia for Prime Minister Julia Gillard. The problem here in Australia is that she’s only come off an election 4 months ago, an election she barely scraped back into power, only achieved with the help of three Independents. Her numbers are now four to five points lower than they were then, and continue to sink. Having deposed the former PM in a party room coup, the Labor Party she leads cannot do the same to her…..TonyfromOz.

 

Gillard’s challenge next year will be to find the issue that justifies breaking her deal with the Independents and calling an early election, on an issue that’s a winner, because what’s happening know is a disaster:

Newspoll chief Martin O’Shannessy sounds a warning. ”Labor’s primary vote is now running about four points lower than it was at the election. If we look at Victoria and South Australia, the states that polled so well for Gillard at the election, the post-election fall has been about five points.”

The alarm for Gillard is that minority government may become a dead political weight for Labor at the polls.

Those lost votes aren’t yet transferring to the Opposition, but the drift is still life-threatening for Labor.

And that’s why I wouldn’t be banking on Paul Kelly’s guarantee:

There is one certainty: Labor will sink or swim with Gillard. There is no alternative leader. The caucus knows this. Given the Rudd experience, assassination of another leader would be an act of political suicide. One of Gillard’s great qualities is her courage and tenacity. It is Labor’s best hope.

Here’s the challenge: name a single success Gillard can claim since becoming Prime Minister.

It’s a tale of unrelieved bungling and dithering, which suggests there is a lot less to Gillard than meets the eye.

Andrew Bolt is a journalist and columnist writing for The Herald Sun in Melbourne Victoria Australia.

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Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and is a regular commentator on Channel 9′s Today show and ABC TV’s Insiders. He will be heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of new radio station MTR 1377, and his book Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.