Climate Change After Copenhagen – What Happens Next?

Posted on Thu 12/24/2009 by

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HOW TEN WORDS WRITTEN IN 1997 KILLED OFF COPENHAGEN.

No matter what the spin might ever hope to achieve, Copenhagen was a huge flop.

Because major World leaders actually did show up, they had to try and come away with something positive, so these people wouldn’t be absolutely humiliated, which, if the truth is to be told is exactly what did happen. They needed something that they could call positive, and even a decision that was basically just political was then ‘spun’ to give the impression that the Conference achieved something.

That decision was so weak as to be almost laughable.

The decision that did come out was an ‘Accord’, basically just a ‘feel good’ agreement that more needed to be done, that they hope to keep any future temperature rise within two degrees Celsius (3.6F) and a commitment to work hard to find meaningful results in the future. This ‘momentous’ decision was agreed to by around twenty Countries, none of whom made any binding decision on Carbon Dioxide (CO2) cuts, or to agree to the UN allowing monitors into their Countries so that they could actually keep an eye on emissions. Around 20 Countries, out of 192 Countries in all, and THIS is what they call meaningful.

They couldn’t even bribe those Countries to sign up for something, and they threw Billions of dollars at them.

The trouble stems right back to the original Kyoto protocol. It was positively draconian by the standard of Copenhagen, and actually has been signed, and then ratified by 191 of those 192 Countries, and the U.S. is the only Country on the Planet not to have given their second ratifying signature to that document. Kyoto actually DID call for binding CO2 emissions reductions, to an amount 5% less than 1990 levels, oh, except for the U.S. that is. They were asked to cut back emissions to 7% lower than 1990 levels.

It doesn’t need me to tell you that NOT ONE of those 192 Countries has cut back their emissions to anywhere even close to that level, and in fact, most of those Countries have doubled or tripled their emissions since Kyoto was implemented, and a lot of them even more than that. So not only could they not cut back their emissions in that time frame, keeping in mind Kyoto was implemented in 1997, it is now 12 years later than that, and that cutback is even more unobtainable now than it was then, and even further away, almost an impossibility now to even hope to achieve.

Now, keep in mind, some of those richer First World Countries have introduced vast plans to replace those coal fired power emissions with renewable power. Having done so, at enormous costs to those Countries, their emissions have still steadily increased, because those three forms of renewable just cannot replace the steadiness and reliability of coal fired power, with its inherent ability to be able to deliver huge amounts of electrical power for 24 hours of every day.

The real problem however, can be put down to one small statement in that Kyoto protocol, and it didn’t even amount to one whole line of text, in fact only 10 words in all.

The UN in its infinite wisdom divided the Planet up into two groups. (virtually the ‘haves’ and the ‘have nots’) 40 rich Countries were put into one group, and the remaining 152 Countries into the second group. From that first group, 23 Countries were then further culled out and called Annex 2 Countries, and here’s where those critical 10 words came into play. They listed those 23 Countries and then, in brackets after that list came these fateful 10 words:

(Developed Countries which pay for all costs of developing Countries)

Then, everybody signed it and over the years everybody added that second signature ratifying the Protocol. This then became the ONLY legally binding document concerning this whole Climate Change debate.

That is why Copenhagen failed. None of those still developing Countries wanted anything new to replace that legally binding document. It didn’t matter one bit about the wonderful ‘feel good’ statements about cutting back emissions, because, well, that was never going to happen, and after all, Kyoto only called for them to report their emissions anyway, not to cut back on them, also now crucial when Copenhagen was also hoping to ask them to cut back on their own emissions. With Kyoto, they didn’t have to implement cutbacks, just report them. There was no way this document could stop those developing Countries from attempting to bring their Country and their people up to a level of civilisation that we in the Western World take for granted. There was no way Kyoto could stop them giving electrical power to their vast populace who did not have it. There was no way Kyoto could prevent those Countries from constructing the cheapest and most reliable form of generating that electrical power. They just went on as they always did, and all they had to (legally) do was to report their emissions.

The added bonus for them was that here was a legal document that said that 23 rich Countries had to foot the bill for all their costs in doing this.

See now why they didn’t want any new document that either cancelled that original Kyoto Protocol, replaced it, or even watered it down in any way, especially that part about the money.

See now also why those richer Countries wanted something new. Once the implications of Kyoto really started to sink in, the physical impossibility of actually doing something to implement it came starkly into focus, as well as having to pay countless Billions of dollars of their own money to those Developing Countries.

None of those developed Countries wanted any concentration on those provisions of Kyoto, because, finally the true import of this has started to come home to roost on them. On the other hand, those other developing Countries saw any new thing as a step back into the past.

So, the spin went out that Copenhagen was going to do something for the future of the Planet.

It failed, because no matter what, those 23 Major Countries had no chance at all of voting down so many Countries who already had a legally binding document that was totally in their favour.

SO THEN, WHAT NOW FOR CLIMATE CHANGE?

Watch for this whole debate to start to diminish. Watch now as politicians start to find ways to back away from the whole debate. They see it now for what it really is, and the impossibility of backing away from Kyoto. Those politicians will start to find ways to begin doubting the ‘Science’ that they have quoted for so long. They will start to tell us now that ‘hold on a minute, there are some irregularities in all this. Maybe we need to look at it again’. There will also be white anting from those politicians as they seek to undermine something they have relied on for so long. The Science will actually begin to be questioned, and not just blindly adhered to.

One of the things to come out of Copenhagen was that they need to work hard in this coming year 2010, and meet again next year in Mexico to work out something final. That has no chance of getting up at all. 2010 is an election year, so there will be less than zero concentration on this debate as politicians seek what they always seek, a desperate chance to hold onto their seat in the Reps or the Senate, and anything that might draw flak will be assiduously avoided. What chance then of Waxman Markey, Kerry Boxer, or whatever new connotation is placed on that. In an election year, fat chance. All that will die as the perception on the part of the people is that it is just a new and huge tax, so that won’t be mentioned.

No, 2010 will be the year that Climate Change died in the U.S. Politicians will avoid it, and by extrapolation, the fawning media who look after their Democrat friends will also avoid it, and avoid it like the Plague.

You will also start to hear that, ‘wait a minute, maybe these renewable power plants are not really all we have been told about them. Previously they were the magic bullet, and money was just thrown at them from all directions. Now, there will be questions about that too.

Most importantly in this whole debate, the MSM will begin to show their real colours, and over the last few days since Copenhagen has finished, that is already patently obvious. The plethora of articles about Climate Change and Global Warming that there once was have all but dried up. It’s not news any more, and so they have moved on. Now that Copenhagen gave them the flop they so dreaded, they have not even blinked in their rush to look elsewhere.

There will be the odd sensational story on how China was to blame, because, well, that sells copy. They will try to find a way to make a silk purse out of the Copenhagen sows ear. Those stories about China have already started, and even though this is a very long post, it shows exactly why China should not be blamed.

There are people already out there who have profited from this debate, and some immensely so. They will just quietly step back now, having made their Millions and Billions already. There’s no getting that back now.

Renewable power plants will become costly white elephants, producing boutique levels of power, virtually useless for the large scale required.

The coal fired power sector. Well, that has suffered. All those plants are now reaching the end of their lives. The average time span of life for a coal fired plant is around 50 years and in the U.S. currently, the average age for the whole total inventory of every coal fired power plant is now around 48 years. As those older plants close down, there just IS no new large scale 24 hour a day power to replace them, because any plans that even got out of thought bubble stage were long ago canned because they have fallen so far out of favour. The only Country now with modern large scale plans for coal fired power is the Country that is making them on large scale to bring power to the billion people who have no electricity, and that is China. Their new coal fired plants are smaller than existing U.S. old technology plants, some around half the size and less, and producing more power, burning less coal more efficiently, and emitting less CO2. When all this debate finally dies, the only people with new technology for coal fired power on large scales will actually be China. The U.S. has already dropped decades behind them as they bring on line one large scale plant every seven days.

One part of the debate that will start to get legs will be that CO2 is such a minutely tiny part of the Atmosphere, only 0.0388% in fact. People will actually begin to hear this now and actively start to question how such a tiny amount can be what is causing what we are told is catastrophic Global Warming.

People like me will not just stop writing about it now that Copenhagen has failed and failed so miserably, as was always going to be the case. No we’ll keep going, because people need to be shown the reality of all the points surrounding this debate.

And what of the U.S. itself?

Remember how great store was placed in the fact that George W Bush was the major culprit in all this never having signed Kyoto as ratifying it. Remember how he was painted as the great villain by those Democrats with agendas. Remember how he was virtually the major stumbling block in all this. Forget completely that it was actually Bill Clinton and his Vice President Al Gore who were the original ones who failed to send the Bill to the Senate for ratification.

No!

All the blame was sheeted home to George W Bush.

Well consider this then right now.

Kyoto IS the only legally binding document in existence regarding Climate Change. It is the only document there is.

The only Country on Planet Earth that did not add that second signature to ratify it, meaning that they were also going to be subject to what it required, is the U.S. I’m willing to bet there will be no editorials in MSM outlets thanking George W Bush for not adding that second important signature binding the U.S. to those UN requirements. In fact, it might even become a point of pride for those fawning MSM outlets to thank Bill Clinton and Al Gore. See, there actually may be some mileage still in this dying debate.

Look again at those ten words from that original Kyoto Protocol.

(Developed Countries which pay for all costs of developing Countries)

See why Copenhagen was such a flop, no matter how much lame positive spin is put on it.