Copenhagen – An Exercise In Futility

Posted on Mon 11/30/2009 by

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PERHAPS AN ALTERNATE TITLE MIGHT READ – COPENHAGEN – DON’T FORGET TO BRING YOUR MONEY.

In seven days from now, this United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) will get under way in Copenhagen. We are told that this is the most important meeting in recent history, and is needed to address the Climate Disaster. (Their words, shown at this link)

I have posted earlier posts on this Conference, where I mention that there is now every chance that it may not produce any binding and definitive result. In those posts I mentioned that it has little to do with the environment in fact, and is really just about the money. In fact, the environment may actually have been shuffled back into third place, as now politics has joined the money at the top of the list of things discussed at Copenhagen. (There’s nothing surprising about that either.)

The main focus that those in positions of power will be trying to get across is the cutback in emissions of Carbon Dioxide (CO2), and you will hear a plethora of (mis)information regarding this. This is an intentional thing, because the real intent of the meeting is to shore up the immense amounts of money that the UN will be seeking from the member Countries. There are 192 of these member Countries, and the UN has divided those Countries into two groups, and added a further third group, culled from one of those other two.

The Countries are divided into Developed Countries and Developing Countries. In the first bloc are 40 Countries listed as already developed, leaving the other 152 Countries in that other list. Now, from that list of 40 Countries in that first list, 23 Countries have been placed onto a third list. Now I’m not making this up, but the UN has stated that those 23 Countries must pay ALL the costs for those other Countries so that they can move towards a ‘carbon free’ future.

That’s ALL the costs.

At the same time, those 23 Countries are then required to introduce measures in their own Countries to cut back their own emissions, move to renewable power, impose a charge in the form of an Emissions tax trading scheme, as well as finding the technology for reducing emissions and then giving these technologies to those remaining 152 Countries.

So, when it comes to the question of that funding, you don’t need a crystal ball to deduce how the vote on that question will go.

Those 23 Countries will then have to give that money to the UN so they can distribute it among those remaining 152 Countries. The amounts bandied around are expressed as a percentage of GDP, and some figures put that even as high as 1%. This will effectively amount to hundreds of Billions of dollars, and that’s not just a one off payment, but for each and every year.

Now, when percentages of cutbacks in emissions are discussed, those same 40 Countries from that first list will again be the only ones who are bound by that decision. Those other 152 will have to do nothing significant, because this will mean a cutback in their further development. Again, no crystal ball is required to tell you how that vote will go.

So, while all the talk will be on saving the World by cutting back those emissions, the really meaningful discussions will be only about the funding, and you won’t be hearing much about that, the perception being that this is just grubby, when for a pristine ‘green’ wholesome look will be that preservation of the environment for the future generations.

The politics will also be important, as those really important Countries look for any decision that will make them look good at home, and talk of how much money they promise to give to the UN won’t go down well at home, so again, that will be shuffled away. Politicians from those big Countries will also seek to find a way to come to a resolution positive enough so that their legislation in their own Country that they are trying to ram through will still look like it is desperately needed.

So the Environment will be the loudest thing you’ll hear. The politics will be the next loudest, and you’ll hear next to nothing at all about the grubby money, when the truth is that of those three subjects, the order will actually be the reverse.

So! Why will it be an exercise in futility?

Now, the upshot of it all is that nothing at all in respect of those emissions will change. In fact emissions will keep steadily increasing, and there is absolutely nothing whatsoever this Conference can do to change that, and I’m absolutely certain that those in positions of influence at this conference know exactly that.

I’ve been contributing posts at this blog now for 21 months, and I have literally hundreds of posts on this subject. From day one, I have sought to shine a bright light on every aspect about this subject. What I have attempted to do is to slightly lift the shroud of misinformation regarding this whole matter, so people can see that this actually has nothing whatsoever to do with the environment. The main thrust of the whole argument is aimed squarely at those largest emitters of CO2, those coal fired power plants, which produce around one third of all man made CO2 emissions.

Think about it for a minute. If they tell us we are facing what they call a man made Climate Disaster, then surely, if it was that bad, then desperate efforts would be taken to immediately close down those coal fired power plants. Not one person in any position of power anywhere has even canvassed doing just that.

Despite what might come out of Copenhagen, not one of those coal fired plants will be immediately closed down. In fact, in those 152 Countries in that second UN bloc are furiously constructing coal fired power plants. They’re not doing that to thumb their nose at the environment. They are doing that out of necessity, so that the electrical power (that we in the Developed World take as a staple of life) can be brought to those Countries, (a) so that they can actually start to develop their economies, and (b) so that the electrical power can be brought to the people in those Countries that have no access whatsoever to any electrical power, let alone the reliable access to it that we have.

To that end, China alone is bringing on line one new coal fired power plant each week. That’s not just starting construction, but opening it for business and supplying power to the grids of China. To emphasise that point, let’s have a look at those figures for China, and for the purpose of comparison, I’ll use the U.S. statistics. For readers in other Countries, (Australia included), these U.S. statistics where I have used percentage breakdowns are similar.

In the U.S. the power breakdown for consumer sectors is Residential (37%) Commercial (35%) and Industrial (27%) As I’m specifically using access to residential power, I’ll just highlight that sector.

In China, the total power being used in all three sectors is 2.963 Trillion KWH. (the fifth point at this link)

In the U.S. the total power being used in all three sectors is 3.972 Trillion KWH. (Bottom right at this link) The residential component of that (37%) is 1.47 Trillion KWH, and the population of the US is 305 Million people.

In China however, the vast bulk of that power goes to the Industrial sector, in fact 75% of all that power. The Residential sector only gets 12% of all power being produced. (Page 6 of this link, and it’s a pdf document) So, that now means that only 0.36 Trillion KWH goes to the residential sector, and China’s population is 1.33 Billion.

So comparing them, China directs less than one quarter of the power that the US does to 4.4 times as many people, a factor of 18 times the power per population in the U.S. and in those other already developed economies where that electrical power is always there at a Residential level.

What it really means is that vast sectors of the Chinese population have no power whatsoever at a Residential level, and in fact that figure is close to 1 Billion people in China who have no electrical power at all.

The same applies on the same scale in India, and also in those other developing Countries.

Incidentally while electrical power generation for distribution to all consumers in China is increasing at around 3% per year, electrical power generation in the US is decreasing, mainly because those old technology coal fired plants are reaching the end of their useful life, and the power actually coming on stream cannot replace the amounts of power delivered by those coal fired plants.

Also, Coal fired power generation in the US is down around 45% of the total. In China, that amount of power from coal fired sources is around 62%. In the whole of the World, the average power generation from Coal fired sources is up at around 85%, so in effect, with the U.S. and China well below that percentage, those two Countries in fact are artificially LOWERING that average to the current 85%, proving that coal fired power production is in fact widespread, and with nothing to replace it, then it will continually stay that way, emitting what it always has, further showing up the UN’s wish to lower those emissions as just that, a wish that can never be realised.

So now it becomes patently obvious why China is desperately constructing coal fired power plants, so it can develop further and also to bring that electrical power to its peoples.

THAT is something you most definitely will not hear coming out of Copenhagen. That is why China and India and those other developing Countries will in now way, ever, agree to any binding cutbacks in their emissions.

That is why those coal fired power plants are being constructed like there is no tomorrow, because there will be no tomorrow for them if they are FORCED to cut back on their emissions.

In fact The World Bank is actually giving Billions of dollars to those developing Countries to construct the very coal fired power plants that the UN rails against so loudly.

You won’t hear this reasoning coming out of Copenhagen. President Obama will not be mentioning it, nor any of the people he sends to Copenhagen. Australian Prime Minister Mr Rudd won’t be mentioning it either, nor his people. You won’t hear this at all.

It will be something political so they can shore up their positions at home, as both desperately seek to try and introduce Carbon Cap and Trade legislation. This would be totally inconvenient for them, and show them as the heartless, uncaring, unfeeling political opportunists that they are.

Don’t talk to me that we need to find ways to introduce renewable power to replace those coal fired plants. Again, in those hundreds of posts I have made, I go into that in intricate detail explaining how they cannot EVER take the place of coal fired power.

Go to these links. No need to read them all, because there’s hundreds of them.

Coal Fired Power Generation. 6 pages of 20 posts per page.

Nuclear Power Generation. 6 pages of 20 posts per page.

Solar Power. 8 pages of 20 posts per page.

Wind Power. 7 pages of 20 posts per page.

Base Load power. Two links here and also here. 4 and 6 pages of 20 posts per page.

The Original Kyoto Series I started 21 months ago. 3 pages of 20 posts per page.

Further links. Too many pages.

No.

This will be a complete exercise in futility.

Copenhagen will be very carefully stage managed. It will be done to make the UN look good. It will have minor decisions made that will be announced to shore up political decisions that again suit the UN. You won’t hear what really goes on, the important stuff.

Why?

Because that important stuff is the most important of all, the whole crux of this whole thing.

It’s just about the money.