Where’s That Global Warming? Every Model Wrong

Posted on Fri 04/19/2013 by

1


Bolt New 01By Andrew Bolt ~

Dr Roy Spencer is the US science team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite:

Courtesy of John Christy, and based upon data from the KNMI Climate Explorer, below is a comparison of 44 climate models versus the UAH and RSS satellite observations for global lower tropospheric temperature variations, for the period 1979-2012 from the satellites, and for 1975 – 2025 for the models:

modelsss_thumb

Clearly, there is increasing divergence over the years between the satellite observations (UAH, RSS) and the models. The reasons for the disagreement are not obvious, since there are at least a few possibilities:

1) the real climate system is not as sensitive to increasing CO2 as the models are programmed to be (my preferred explanation)

2) the extra surface heating from more CO2 has been diluted more than expected by increased mixing with cooler, deeper ocean waters (Trenberth’s explanation)

3) increased manmade aerosol pollution is causing a cooling influence, partly mitigating the manmade CO2 warming

If I am correct (explanation #1), then we will continue to see little warming into the future. Additional evidence for lower climate sensitivity in the above plot is the observed response to the 1991 Pinatubo eruption: the temporary temperature dip in 1992-93, and subsequent recovery, is weaker in the observations than in the models. This is exactly what would be predicted with lower climate sensitivity.

UPDATE

ABC warmist Tony Jones and Opposition climate action spokesman Greg Hunt between then speak more than 2600 words on the best way to cut emissions and how much it will cost.

Not one of those 2600 words somehow manages to include these facts, which are surely relevant:

- The world hasn’t actually been warming as the models predicted.

- Australia’s cuts to emissions will make no detectable difference to the temperature anymore.

So what we had was a long and detailed talk about the best way to do absolutely nothing to stop what might not be happening anyway.

Andrew Bolt is a journalist and columnist writing for The Herald Sun in Melbourne Victoria Australia.

Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am. He is also heard from Monday to Friday at 8am on the breakfast show of radio station MTR 1377, and his book  Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.

Read more excellent articles from Andrew Bolt’s Blog . http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/

About these ads