SOME computer models for global warming may be over-estimating the risk of drought, according to a study published on Wednesday by the journal Nature.
Several key models used in climate research that factor in warming trends suggest that droughts will intensify as world temperatures rise.
This is on the basis that dry soils have less moisture to suck up into the atmosphere, which reduces rainfall and thus causes even greater aridity.
But scientists are worried that these models are too large in scale and lack observational data, especially about what happens locally.
This will explain why our local warmists used to predict our last drought would “never break” – would be “permanent”, our “new climate” – and why we built appallingly expensive desalination plants now lying idle in the rain.
From The Age, August 30, 2009:
“A three-year collaboration between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO has confirmed . . . that the 13-year drought is not just a natural dry stretch but a shift related to climate change . . .“In the minds of a lot of people, the rainfall we had in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s was a benchmark, [said the bureau’s Bertrand Timbal]. . .
“But we are just not going to have that sort of good rain again as long as the system is warming up.”
The Sydney Morning Herald likewise unblinkingly reported claims we’d never again see good rain. From January 8, 2008, under the headline “This drought may never break”:
“It may be time to stop describing south-eastern Australia as gripped by drought and instead accept the extreme dry as permanent . .. ‘Perhaps we should call it our new climate,’ said the Bureau of Meteorology’s head of climate analysis, David Jones.”
Andrew Bolt’s columns appear in Melbourne’s Herald Sun, Sydney’s Daily Telegraph and Adelaide’s Advertiser. He runs the most-read political blog in Australia and hosts Channel 10’s The Bolt Report each Sunday at 10am, and his book Still Not Sorry remains very widely read.